Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.221231 0.249144 0.279358 0.314518 0.354339 0.398074 0.449800
2025-11-09 0.166212 0.200415 0.240142 0.289778 0.350261 0.421727 0.512813
2025-11-16 0.132515 0.169802 0.215923 0.277353 0.357326 0.458314 0.596159
2025-11-23 0.107451 0.145529 0.195414 0.265878 0.363394 0.494380 0.685007
2025-11-30 0.092777 0.132312 0.186960 0.268535 0.388133 0.558475 0.822024
2025-12-07 0.077042 0.115136 0.170424 0.257223 0.391401 0.593120 0.923449
2025-12-14 0.065907 0.102881 0.159044 0.251485 0.401696 0.639362 1.050157
2025-12-21 0.056956 0.092579 0.149028 0.246141 0.411502 0.686053 1.185509
2025-12-28 0.051637 0.087235 0.145972 0.251400 0.439202 0.765881 1.390474
2026-01-04 0.045795 0.080162 0.139022 0.248904 0.453014 0.823829 1.566636
2026-01-11 0.041448 0.075045 0.134668 0.250236 0.473718 0.897086 1.784296
2026-01-18 0.038135 0.071307 0.132216 0.254610 0.500643 0.985978 2.048581
2026-01-25 0.033389 0.064399 0.123233 0.245653 0.501159 1.025419 2.223424
2026-02-01 0.028932 0.057455 0.113271 0.233306 0.492935 1.046012 2.362678
2026-02-08 0.025847 0.052827 0.107256 0.228198 0.499217 1.098526 2.584855
2026-02-15 0.023084 0.048491 0.101256 0.222224 0.502671 1.145526 2.804164
2026-02-22 0.021588 0.046624 0.100180 0.226932 0.531172 1.254742 3.199177
2026-03-01 0.019268 0.042662 0.094047 0.219196 0.529144 1.291269 3.416411
2026-03-08 0.017531 0.039777 0.089932 0.215588 0.536588 1.352437 3.712684
2026-03-15 0.015989 0.037140 0.086035 0.211923 0.543297 1.412952 4.020572
2026-03-22 0.015167 0.036086 0.085704 0.217075 0.573717 1.541168 4.551625
2026-03-29 0.014022 0.034105 0.082880 0.215405 0.585601 1.621160 4.956853
2026-04-05 0.013158 0.032713 0.081335 0.216893 0.606520 1.730496 5.478934